Most of this picture is mixed and influenced by a bunch of different factors. But we can say one thing definitively: Hiring has been relatively dormant since Trump took the oath of office. Only 597,000 jobs have been added in the first seven months of the year, a 44 percent drop from the first seven months of 2024, as former Biden economist Heather Boushey notes. The year has seen low hiring and a low quit rate, as people hunker down in the jobs they have. There are fewer entry-level positions and Americans aren’t moving very much for work. That’s a housing story but it’s also a job security story, and the expectations are even worse: The University of Michigan survey shows expectations for a higher unemployment rate next year at the highest level since the Great Recession…
The insecurity gripping American workers has kept wages stagnant, up just 0.1 percent last month. (It took the Wall Street Journal editorial board, of all places, to point this out.) That means that wages aren’t keeping pace with prices, which is what really matters with the cost of living.
On top of this, a host of nontariff policy changes are squeezing or poised to squeeze ordinary Americans. The Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker now estimates that the median health insurance plan in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces is going up 18 percent in 2026, and that understates the impact, because the expiration of enhanced ACA premium subsidies will make this feel much worse. Student loan payment resumption bites so deep for the millions of student borrowers that many are just ignoring the bills, which is likely to lead to intrusive collections and garnishing of wages. The Big Tech obsession, fueled by the Trump administration, to frantically build data centers (and keep the stock market high) is leading to soaring electricity prices, which Trump’s policy to kill any renewable source of energy will only worsen. - The American Prospect
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
It's hard to see the economy not tanking
I generally agree with David Dayen, and I certainly do so here.
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The New York Times has a story out that there will be 300,000 less federal workers by the end of the year .... remember that as of late July 2025, over 154,000 federal employees were on paid administrative leave as part of a voluntary deferred resignation program initiated by the Trump administration ... so those employees are not working but would be counted as being employed.
ReplyDeleteWhether you want to believe the BLS numbers, the July 2025 report showed declines in professional services (which makes you wonder how many jobs will be lost due to AI). Further the Temporary Help Services category showed repeated declines ... when business just needs workers but are unwilling to commit to them, is when they seek temps ... that suggests that if you got a job today, it might not be there tomorrow ... LIFO (last in first out) may be the next manpower decision.
The WARN Act requires employers to inform that government of planned reductions ... and the good news is that the July report for Minnesota was only 427 positions from 20 employers.
And the bad news is that as of July 17, 98 federal grants have been terminated or suspended at the University of Minnesota by the Trump Administration ... which resulted in the termination of 56-60 SNAP educators at the U of M .... how many more is unknown.
Once those higher healthcare insurance premiums hit is when you will see the impact on spending. Employers who provide health insurance may (or may not) pass the increase onto their workers but that will worry upper management. Funny thing is that this month of the five dividends I received, two companies actually increased their payout (one a 9% and the other at 4%) ... can't think that they would do that if they didn't feel comfortable that their customers would continue to buy products and be willing to accept the higher prices.