It's hard to see the economy not tanking

I generally agree with David Dayen, and I certainly do so here.

Most of this picture is mixed and influenced by a bunch of different factors. But we can say one thing definitively: Hiring has been relatively dormant since Trump took the oath of office. Only 597,000 jobs have been added in the first seven months of the year, a 44 percent drop from the first seven months of 2024, as former Biden economist Heather Boushey notes. The year has seen low hiring and a low quit rate, as people hunker down in the jobs they have. There are fewer entry-level positions and Americans aren’t moving very much for work. That’s a housing story but it’s also a job security story, and the expectations are even worse: The University of Michigan survey shows expectations for a higher unemployment rate next year at the highest level since the Great Recession…

The insecurity gripping American workers has kept wages stagnant, up just 0.1 percent last month. (It took the Wall Street Journal editorial board, of all places, to point this out.) That means that wages aren’t keeping pace with prices, which is what really matters with the cost of living.

On top of this, a host of nontariff policy changes are squeezing or poised to squeeze ordinary Americans. The Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker now estimates that the median health insurance plan in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces is going up 18 percent in 2026, and that understates the impact, because the expiration of enhanced ACA premium subsidies will make this feel much worse. Student loan payment resumption bites so deep for the millions of student borrowers that many are just ignoring the bills, which is likely to lead to intrusive collections and garnishing of wages. The Big Tech obsession, fueled by the Trump administration, to frantically build data centers (and keep the stock market high) is leading to soaring electricity prices, which Trump’s policy to kill any renewable source of energy will only worsen. - The American Prospect