Stock market and consumer sentiment diverge more than ever

Well, since consumer sentiment has been measured, anyway. This is not at all surprising.

Multiple polls and surveys released in recent days have shown US consumer sentiment cratering—and all the while, the US stock market keeps hitting record highs.

…up until around 2020, consumer sentiment matched stock market performance closely, although there was a large divergence between the two leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, where stocks briefly outperformed consumer sentiment before crashing downward as the housing bubble burst.

But throughout the last six years, the graphic shows, the S&P 500 has produced an almost continuous upward surge even as consumer sentiment spirals downward.

“Absolutely incredible,” commented Kobeissi Letter. “Over the last six years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.” - Common Dreams

The bottom line regarding the AI market panic

This summarizes, very well, a lot of things.

Now that a company has figured out a way to produce an AI app that’s just as effective at producing satisfactory output as the big American companies, at a sliver of the cost, a $500 billion data center facility in the desert suddenly seems like an offensive boondoggle…

It’s worth underlining a couple things here. First, generative AI long seemed destined to become a commodity; that ChatGPT can be so suddenly supplanted with a big news cycle about a competitor, and one that’s open source no less, suggests that this moment may have arrived faster than some anticipated. OpenAI is currently selling its most advanced model for $200 a month; if DeepSeek’s cost savings carry over on other models, and you can train an equally powerful model at 1/50th of the cost, it’s hard to imagine many folks paying such rates for long, or for this to ever be a significant revenue stream for the major AI companies. Since DeepSeek is open source, it’s only a matter of time before other AI companies release cheap and efficient versions of AI that’s good enough for most consumers, too, theoretically giving rise to a glut of cheap and plentiful AI—and boxing out those who have counted on charging for such services.

Second, this recent semi-hysterical build out of energy infrastructure for AI will also likely soon halt; there will be no need to open any additional Three Mile Island nuclear plants for AI capacity, if good-enough AI can be trained more efficiently. This too, to me, seemed likely to happen as generative AI was commoditized, since it was always somewhat absurd to have five different giant tech companies using insane amounts of resources to train basically the same models to build basically the same products.

What we’re seeing today can also be seen as, maybe, the beginning of the deflating of the AI bubble, which I have long thought to only be a matter of time, given all of the above, and the relative unprofitability of most of the industry. - Blood in the Machine

Some realities about generative AI seem to be setting in

While the stock market "crash" turned out to be not much to worry about, this story contains a good deal of worthy, trenchant analysis.

This is it. Generative AI, as a commercial tech phenomenon, has reached its apex. The hype is evaporating. The tech is too unreliable, too often. The vibes are terrible. The air is escaping from the bubble. To me, the question is more about whether the air will rush out all at once, sending the tech sector careening downward like a balloon that someone blew up, failed to tie off properly, and let go—or more slowly, shrinking down to size in gradual sputters, while emitting embarrassing fart sounds, like a balloon being deliberately pinched around the opening by a smirking teenager.

But come on. The jig is up. The technology that was at this time last year being somberly touted as so powerful that it posed an existential threat to humanity is now worrying investors because it is apparently incapable of generating passable marketing emails reliably enough. We’ve had at least a year of companies shelling out for business-grade generative AI, and the results—painted as shinily as possible from a banking and investment sector that would love nothing more than a new technology that can automate office work and creative labor—are one big “meh.” - Blood in the Machine