The US is losing the war for oil

Reality-based analysis.

The 19th century American naval theorist Alfred Thayer Mahan stressed that a great maritime empire needn’t control the seas but rather must establish dominance over what he called “the narrows.” We would now say “chokepoints.”

The United States and its allies, principally Israel and Saudi Arabia, have in the past (four) days lost the battle for the narrows. Whether they have lost the war is still unclear, though it certainly appears that way. - Informed Comment

More proof that US pressure and sanctions are failed BS

Unfortunately the people in charge just will not learn. Too cowardly to personally face the realities of stupidity and failure, among other things.

This time around, the U.S. had been cut out of the picture, a sea change reflecting not just Chinese initiatives but Washington’s incompetence, arrogance, and double-dealing in the subsequent three decades in the Middle East. An aftershock came in early May as concerns gripped Congress about the covert construction of a Chinese naval base in the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. ally hosting thousands of American troops. The Abu Dhabi facility would be an add-on to the small base at Djibouti on the east coast of Africa used by the People’s Liberation Army-Navy for combating piracy, evacuating noncombatants from conflict zones, and perhaps regional espionage...

China’s interest in bringing to an end the Iranian-Saudi cold war, which constantly threatened to turn hotter, is clear enough, but why did those two countries choose such a diplomatic channel? After all, the United States still styles itself the “indispensable nation.” If that phrase ever had much meaning, however, American indispensability is now visibly in decline, thanks to blunders like allowing Israeli right-wingers to cancel the Oslo peace process, the launching of an illegal invasion of and war in Iraq in 2003, and the grotesque Trumpian mishandling of Iran. - Informed Comment

Hopefully Pres. Biden won't be a war pig

This is about an airstrike that was ordered last week. I consider that to have been a negative, unnerving early indicator.

Members of the hoary foreign policy “blob” inside the Beltway told the Washington Post that the strike was intended to let the Iranians know that the US could not be pushed around, in advance of the opening of negotiations over the US return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.

That’s the most damn fool thing I’ve ever heard.

The US tore up the nuclear deal in 2018 and never had abided by its part of the bargain, to lift economic sanctions on Iran. President Biden should concentrate on nuclear issues if he wants a nuclear accord, and avoid extraneous distractions like militias. - Informed Comment

Mega-humiliation for Trump on Iran

As something of an aside, I've never really bought the claim of the U.S. as the "leader of the free world," past or present. Among other things we've always been more a plutocracy than a democracy. Though it's not as if a true democracy has really existed, yet, anywhere. But getting back on point:

On Friday, the United Nations Security Council took up a resolution presented by US ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft, aimed at an indefinite extension of the UN arms embargo on Iran. Only one of the 15 members, the Dominican Republic, supported the US resolution. Eleven abstained. And two–Russia and China, voted against it. The resolution would have needed 8 to pass and would have needed to avoid a veto by one of the five permanent members.

But it failed by 13 to 2. China and Russia did not even have to brandish a veto. It is hard to remember another vote on which the US was humiliated quite this badly, though if George W. Bush had actually pursued a UNSC authorization for his Iraq War in spring of 2003, he might have similarly gone down to epochal diplomatic defeat.

Let us underline this. The most powerful countries in the world and the current representatives of the main global blocs just sided with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei against Donald J. Trump.

The United States is no longer the leader of the free world. - Informed Comment

Getting more concerned about Trump/Iran

I am more worried about Trump starting a war with Iran than I was, especially given the pretty much daily evidence of his deteriorating mental health. Not sleepless nights-worried, yet. But maybe getting there.

Rightwing hawks in the US criticized Trump for calling off the attack. Liberal Democrats pointed out that he started the whole mess by withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Trump supporters tried to pass off the flip flop as a brilliant tactical move that threw the Iranians off balance.

In fact, the Iranian government saw Trump’s vacillation as a sign of weakness, according to a Tehran journalist with close government ties, who is not authorized to speak to the media.

“Iran was ready to retaliate on an unbelievable scale,” the journalist tells me in a phone interview. “After the first US missile launch, Trump wouldn’t be able to control the consequences, not only in the Persian Gulf but from Saudi Arabia to Israel.” - Informed Comment