Saturday, January 21, 2023

Biden administration may have to cut some of the bullying, sanctions crap, like it or not

Stupid and ineffective sanctions, fomenting a new Cold War with China...while he's been much better than I expected on domestic issues overall, in foreign policy, except for Ukraine, Pres. Biden has been horrible. Hopefully he'll get it together, at least bit by bit.
Iran, the oil exports of which the US had devastated, seems to have increased its sales abroad by about a third, with volume rising from 669,000 mn bpd in 2021 to 900,000 mn bpd in 2022, a 35% increase, according to VOA. Most of Iran’s oil goes to China, which will need even more of it as its economy opens back up. The Iran sales to China evade US sanctions.

I conclude that virtually the only way for the US to keep economic pressure on the Kremlin in the second half of 2023 is to turn a blind eye to an even bigger expansion of Iranian exports, which could help offset the expected 0.9 million barrels a day shortfall.

In short, in the real world Washington may have to choose which country to put under maximum pressure sanctions, and it just may not be possible to do both.

Many social scientists believe that, anyway, harsh sanctions on a country devastate the middle class and make it weaker vis-a-vis the government, and so actually harm civil society activism. Iran’s protest movement would do better with fewer, not more, U.S. sanctions — especially broad ones targeting civil institutions such as the Central Bank. - Informed Comment

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